Prepared for Robin | Delivered October 4, 2019
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To find the total potential market for all digital subscribers worldwide.
global penetration rate
for the internet is currently estimated at 58.8% and 4,536,248,808. Technically, this would be the TAM for digital subscribers.
least developed countries
, the rate is 17.5%, 41.3% for developing and 81% for developed.
If we want to look at broadband only, since we may assume that those on slower connection speeds would be less likely to pay for content (due to slow speeds), this figure reduces to
Reuters run an annual survey which looks at willingness to pay for online news. Nordic countries lead the pack with numbers like 34%, whereas the US sits at 16%. Their generic average across several other countries is
It is possible to take all 38 countries in the Reuters survey, use their country household figures and internet penetration rate and then compare this against those who stated they were willing to pay for content to come up with a total TAM for news content subscribers. This is a valid method, as Reuters found that the vast majority of respondents were only willing to pay for one news source instead of multiple.
The streaming services total addressable market
can be calculated
by using the penetration rate for all internet households (fixed and mobile broadband), as mobile speeds grow as technology increases. The market potential for mobile-broadband international households outside of China is
. We already know Netflix has
US subscribers, with the potential there for more. Home broadband penetration is
, which means there are already more Netflix subscribers than
. Countries like the US are likely outliers for Netflix, though, and most other geographies won't have more subscribers than households.
Globally, subscription-based video content has a penetration rate of